While I just want Star Wars: The Force Awakens to be a good movie, we’ll all be keeping a close eye on how it performs at the box office. Granted, its box office take will only be a small piece of the movie’s real grossing power—we’ll never know how much it made from merchandise sales, ancillary markets, etc. but it’s rare for a movie to have a clear shot at being able to take the box office title, and you don’t know when an obvious contender will come around again.

Although we’re still about five weeks out from the latest Star Wars movie, one of our sources has clued us into the film’s tracking numbers, and they’re impressive to say the least. The movie is currently tracking to open to $225 million, which would put it well ahead of the $208 million Jurassic World made when it opened earlier this year and broke The Avengers’ opening weekend record of $207 million.

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Image via Disney

However, this $225 million is a modest prediction. Keep in mind that unlike Jurassic World or the previous opening weekend record holder, The Avengers, The Force Awakens is basically playing non-stop from the time it opens on Thursday night through Monday morning. It has the most screens and the most showtimes. If people want to see it at 4:00am on Friday, they can; they couldn’t do that with Avengers or Jurassic World. Also, as we previously reported, The Force Awakens will have no competition on IMAX screens for a month.

Keep in mind that tracking numbers change over time, and it’s possible that $225 million might be out of the realm of possibility. Star Wars has never braved a holiday season before, and no December movie has ever grossed over $100 million on opening weekend, let alone the over $200 million The Force Awakens would need to take the record. People are busy traveling, they have hectic schedules, and some might want to wait out a chaotic weekend and see Star Wars later. It would still make a lot of money, but it would be spread out over time.

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Image via Lucasfilm

Although I’m personally terrible at predicting box office, I still think The Force Awakens will set a new opening weekend record. I don’t know by how much, but I think $225 million is a good baseline, and it will be interesting to see how tracking develops in the weeks ahead. Sound off in the comments section with your prediction for how much you think Star Wars will make in its opening weekend. The film officially hits theaters on December 18th, with the first screenings beginning the evening of the 17th.

For more on Star Wars, peruse our recent links below:

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