Succession fans were on the brink of a panic attack watching the season's latest episode about a nightmarish presidential election in which a large batch of ballots in Wisconsin is destroyed in a fire. While the scenario might bring to mind a combination of real-life events, such as the January 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol and the Bush v. Gore recount in Florida, many viewers are wondering: could this actually happen?
While it’s true, as stated in the show, that any such incident would ultimately be decided in the courts, Wisconsin voting officials would likely know which ballots went up in flames due to their ballot tracking system. But how the media and public would react to the event is a different story. As we examine the details of this hypothetical scenario, we’ll see how Succession’s point – that democracy can often be up for grabs – is undoubtedly true.
Setting the Votes Ablaze
In the show, it’s alleged that supporters of right-wing presidential candidate Jeryd Mencken (Justin Kirk) are responsible for lighting a voting center in Milwaukee on fire. While this isn’t explicitly proven, it seems likely to be true. Mencken’s supporters were previously responsible for bullying Kendall Roy’s (Jeremy Strong) daughter. Perhaps akin to the Proud Boys or similar white nationalist groups, Mencken’s supporters seem unafraid to take to the streets in support of their radical ideology. So it’s not a surprise nor does it seem far-fetched to suspect them of tampering with the election in favor of their chosen candidate.
Justin Kirk, who plays Mencken, recently told The Hollywood Reporter that “Succession often feels not necessarily a mirror, but like five minutes from now.” This is an adept way of understanding not just his character but also the events surrounding Mencken’s supposed electoral victory. Succession is commenting on the chaos surrounding events like January 6 as an indication of what could happen if things are pushed to greater extremes. Perhaps rather than storm the Capitol in response to tallying up Joe Biden’s electoral college votes, extremists could tamper with the votes themselves. Unlike January 6, it would only take a few people to execute an attack like the one that occurs in Succession.
Recovering the Lost Ballots
The good news is that even if such an attack were to take place, voting officials would likely have a good idea of what ballots were destroyed, thanks to ballot tracking systems. As Politico explained, “unless ballots had just arrived at the central tabulation centers in Milwaukee, election officials would have a pretty good idea of which ballots went up in flames.” This reality contradicts Succession, which portrays the destruction of ballots as a confusing quagmire from which there is no clear escape. In the event of a fire at a voting center, it’s also possible that officials “may have been able to save memory cards with the results from ballots that have already been tabulated.” This is all good news that can perhaps make some Succession viewers sleep a little easier at night. But where things really get complicated is the surefire controversy and legal battles that would take place following the destruction of ballots.
A court battle over the tabulation of votes certainly brings the infamous Bush v. Gore Supreme Court decision to mind. In this decision, the Court ruled that a recount of votes cast in Florida be stopped. This resulted in George W. Bush winning Florida’s 25 electoral votes, thus securing him the presidency. It was a controversial and contentious ruling, but it would be mere child’s play compared to what would happen in a Succession-type event in which ballots were destroyed. Politico's legal experts suspect that a judge would grant a special opportunity for voters whose ballots were incinerated to recast their votes. But inevitably, this would cause controversy. In the end, it’s difficult to predict how a case like this would pan out since it is without real-world precedent, but much like Bush v. Gore, it would likely come down to decisions made by a small group of people, with democracy hanging in the balance.
The Media and Public Reaction to This Election Scenario
Perhaps the most important element of this doomsday scenario would be how the public would respond. As we’ve seen in recent years, members of both political parties tend to engage in conspiratorial thinking regarding presidential elections. A recent CNN poll found that 63% of Republicans believe that Joe Biden did not legitimately win the 2020 election. And according to a 2019 Reuters/Ipsos poll, nearly half of Americans believe Donald Trump colluded with Russia to interfere in the 2016 election. Perhaps some poll respondents define “legitimately winning” and “collusion” in their own unique ways, but in any case, there is widespread skepticism about the veracity of presidential elections.
In the event of ballots going up in smoke, partisan media pundits would likely attempt to quickly set the narrative for how their viewers should respond to such a crisis. This certainly jives with what happens in Succession, as the right-wing ATN cable news network swiftly calls the election for Mencken, their chosen candidate. ATN makes this call despite not having data on the missing ballots and despite available evidence indicating those ballots probably would not have been for Mencken. Although, as Kendall notes, this decision does not actually mean Mencken will definitely become president, it does indicate how eager news outlets can be to play an active partisan role in the outcome of elections.
Ultimately, the good news is that officials would probably be able to find a way to recover at least some of the lost ballots, and a judge would likely allow voters to head back to the polls to re-cast their votes, if necessary. The bad news is that this may not stop politicians, political parties, or the media from respecting the democratic process. As Justin Kirk suggested, however, the point of Succession is not so much to hold up a mirror to America but rather to gaze into a crystal ball and tell us what our future might be. Hopefully, this means we can heed Succession’s warning and stop our American Dream from becoming a nightmare.
New episodes of Succession Season 4 premiere every Sunday on HBO and HBO Max.