Whether you like it or not, superhero movies sell. The Batman, due out in theaters this Friday, is poised to deliver the biggest opening weekend since Sony’s Spider-Man: No Way Home, which debuted to record-breaking numbers back in December. The decidedly darker DC film is conservatively estimated to make between $100 million and $125 million in its opening weekend, which is roughly around half of what No Way Home made in its first three days. There is, however, a realistic chance that it opens to around $140 million.
This means that The Batman will register the second-biggest opening weekend haul of the pandemic era. Like No Way Home, the film is riding a wave of positive critical reviews and major fan anticipation—it’s the first solo Batman movie in a decade, although the character has appeared in team-up films in the interim years. Potential hurdles come in the form of a daunting run time that is a hair under three hours, and Sony’s holdover hit Uncharted, which could eat into the same demographic.
Budgeted at a reported $200 million, the film stars Robert Pattinson in the titular role, and tells a grim story about Bruce Wayne's early days as the crime-fighting vigilante Batman. Director Matt Reeves has cited everything from the New Hollywood movies of the 1970s to the music of Nirvana to David Fincher's serial killer thrillers as influences, teasing a noir-infused detective thriller that just happens to be populated by DC characters.
By comparison, Christopher Nolan’s The Dark Knight made a then-record $158 million in its opening weekend back in 2008. Its direct follow-up, 2012’s The Dark Knight Rises, made $160 million in its first weekend. Zack Snyder’s Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice had a higher (but rather front-loaded) $166 million debut in 2016, and director Todd Phillips’ standalone Joker movie almost cracked $100 million in 2019.
Reeves’ reboot is sort of modeled on the success of Joker, which went on to become the highest-grossing R-rated film of all time, with a final worldwide tally of over $1 billion. Originally conceptualized as a part of the ongoing DC Extended Universe, The Batman was rewritten as a standalone film—and potentially the start of a separate franchise—after star Ben Affleck decided to drop out.
Warner Bros is betting hard on the film, and has already set into motion two spinoff series for HBO Max—the first is a procedural about the Gotham City Police Department, and the second a Scarface-like crime story led by Farrell’s Penguin. Two theatrical sequels are also being planned.
Speaking of HBO Max, the studio is dealing with the fallout of its controversial decision to debut every movie on its 2021 slate simultaneously on streaming. This resulted in the box office underperformance of several high-profile titles such as The Matrix Resurrections, The Suicide Squad and Space Jam: A New Legacy. The Batman isn’t getting a day-and-date streaming release (phew), but it will be available on HBO Max 45 days after its theatrical release.
Also starring Zoe Kravitz as Catwoman, Paul Dano as the Riddler, John Turturro as Carmine Falcone, Jeffrey Wright as James Gordon, and Andy Serkis as Alfred Pennyworth, and Colin Farrell as Penguin, The Batman is out Friday. Stay tuned to Collider for more box office updates.