The more you think about the identity of Negan's victim in AMC's The Walking Dead, the more your head starts to spin with possibilities, reasons, and the possible impact from their death. The show infamously ended Season 6 with a cop-out of epic proportions by stringing audiences along during the off-season, forcing them to wait until the Season 7 premiere to find out who was at the business end of Lucille. While I personally think that an off-season discussion of how so-and-so's death would impact the group in Season 7, there's still merit to discussing the odds on just who The Walking Dead will be killing off.

Theories exist in multitudes across the internet, and you can find plenty arguing that your favorite character will definitely die and that that same character will definitely survive. Only a handful of people know for sure. Will the AMC show follow the comic books, in which a fan-favorite character meets their grisly end? Will they opt to off one of the characters who is original to the show or whose TV version has survived beyond that of their comic book counterpart? We'll find out for sure at 9pm on Sunday, October 23rd. But until then, we've laid out the odds for survival for each of the dozen or so characters currently at Negan's mercy, and offered up some rationale as to why their death would or would not be a smart narrative decision.

Take a look at our breakdown of the 11 (or 12) characters on their knees in front of Negan, ranked from least likely to die, to most. I've also checked the latest bookmaker's odds I could find as a reference point. Spoilers follow.

Rick

Unless the folks behind the scenes of The Walking Dead have completely lost their minds, Rick is safe. He's the often-bearded-but-sometimes-clean-shaven face of the franchise. You don't beat your leading man's face into pulp unless he manages to survive said beating. Negan doesn't believe in survivors, so whoever he singled out will be well and truly dead.

And honestly, other than the short-term benefit of shock value, there's no good narrative reason to kill Rick. He's been the character that audiences have followed since the beginning; he's the anchor, the driving force of the group, and the de facto leader. Others have emerged as moral compasses, emotional centers, and equally competent leaders, but without Rick tethering them all together, the show falls apart. Maybe that's what the showrunners want, but I doubt it. Rick will live through this heart-wrenching experience because his reaction is more interesting to watch than his death. However, I wouldn't rule out a maiming or disfiguration...

Chance of Survival: 99%

Vegas Odds: 35/1

Carl

The Grimes family will remain intact into Season 7; you can virtually guarantee that. Not only does Negan have a loose "moral code" of sorts that keeps him from killing women and children (or at least he does in the comics, though it's not iron-clad), he takes a bit of a shine to Carl. The kid's got spunk. And he's clearly seen his share of hardships that he's toughed out; that's something Negan can see from the outset, leading him to take Carl under his wing instead of brutally killing him.

Just like his father, Carl is more interesting and useful to the show when he's alive. Chandler Riggs has literally grown as a young man and as an actor before our eyes, so to lose him now would be tragic. This show loves tragedy, however, so that's where his slim chances for a premiere death come from. But Carl's death would rob viewers of one of the best relationships on the show--between Rick and Carl--plus the rare youthful romance he shares with Enid. Carl's got a lot of life to live on this show; bank on it.

Chance of Survival: 95%

Vegas Odds: 25/1

Maggie

Let's keep a couple of things in mind for this discussion: Maggie is currently pregnant with Glenn's child, has proven to be one of the most endearing and enduring characters on the show, and has emerged as both a proven leader and a big sister/mother figure for some of the young characters. Would her death be beyond devastating? Absolutely, and not least because it would also claim the little life within her.

Maggie's survival isn't as certain as that of the Grimes boys simply because this show delights in punishing mothers. Like Carol losing Sophia, Lori dying in childbirth, Michonne losing two daughters, and Carol (again) killing her "adopted" daughter Lizzie after the little psychopath killed her own sister Mika, the kids may die, but it's the mother figures who bear the grief. The Walking Dead wants Maggie grief-stricken, not dead. It all comes down to whether they'll stick to the comic book version of these events (and those that follow after) as far as Maggie is concerned.

Chance of Survival: 90%

Vegas Odds: 14/1

Michonne

The Walking Dead might be the most balanced drama on TV when it comes to gender equality, and it's no slouch in the much-touted "diversity" category either. However, there's a perception that minorities have historically had a tough time surviving the writers' room in the zombie apocalypse. Now I'm of the opinion that The Walking Dead has been pretty even-handed in dealing out life and death overall and that certain deaths, like Denise or T-Dog, tend to attract so much laser focus that the broader trend is overlooked. But offing Michonne would be a big mistake.

First of all, having a strong Black woman as your female lead in a romantic relationship (that's the second-best on the show) with your strong White male lead is a solid decision in 2016. Secondly, I'd more easily believe that the entirety of the group would fight back to the death should Negan attack Michonne rather than just sit there and watch. (Let's also remember Negan's "no women and children" rule.) Michonne is too good and too interesting a character to off in such a way; her death would risk alienating the fanbase at the short-lived benefit of a little shock value. Not worth it.

Chance of Survival: 85%

Vegas Odds: 10/1

Daryl

Remember what I said about the fanbase? "If Daryl dies, we riot." That sentiment is probably just as strong today as it was when it started. The original character--a motorcycle-riding redneck with a heart of gold whose brother was rotten to the core--has found a home in The Walking Dead fandom. There's certainly the possibility that Daryl could be Negan's victim, but it wouldn't make sense from a narrative or showrunning perspective.

As for the storyline, Daryl's in pretty bad shape at the moment. For Negan to single him out and beat him to a pulp doesn't play as a sign of strength, but rather paints him as a bully who picks on the weak and infirm. From a profitability standpoint, Daryl (and Norman Reedus) remains the show's most marketable face even if he's not the de facto lead or the hero of the comic book pages. The Walking Dead struck gold with this original character so to close the book on him now would be unwise.

Chance of Survival: 85%

Vegas Odds: 10/1

Aaron

Now we get into the mushy middle of The Walking Dead cast which features characters who either don't have a strong enough presence on the show to warrant the "shocking" death scene or are such an easy option that there's little narrative tension in the decision. The safest of the bunch is probably Ross Marquand's Aaron, who's only been in about a quarter of the episodes overall. The relative newcomer has shown his loyalty to both the Alexandrians and Rick's group, but we don't know a whole lot more about his personality beyond that.

In the comics, Aaaron's still kicking, so there's a solid chance he'll get to continue his storyline for a while yet. He's also gay, something that plays well for today's audiences ... at least until you try to kill a gay character off (ie Denise). That in and of itself isn't a reason to favor one character over another, but it's certainly a factor in maintaining the diverse makeup of the characters. Aaron stays.

Chance of Survival: 70%

Vegas Odds: 3/1

Sasha

Sasha has been a bit of a mess lately and for that reason, and others, her fate is a bit of a toss-up. I would expect Sasha to be more of a second casualty based on her reaction to the first victim, if in fact we're to believe that Negan will take out more than one of Rick's group. While her outright death would go against Negan's code, he could always claim self-defense if she attacked him.

But narratively it's slightly better to keep Sasha alive than not. She's the last surviving member of the prison newcomers, has already lost her brother and previous boyfriend, and is currently dating Abraham. This is just to say that she's richly folded into the narrative, but hasn't really stood out as a major character in any way. She was perhaps at her most interesting (or annoying) when going on a solo vendetta against the dead and learning to become a top-notch markswoman. It's just that she's so emotionally distant and detached from reality at times, which makes it hard to get too broken up if she dies (unless it's in response/reaction to another death). Flip a coin.

Chance of Survival: 50%

Vegas Odds: 16/1

Rosita

Rosita's another character who could just as easily make it out alive for the same reasons mentioned above. Something that hasn't been mentioned much is Negan's penchant for making the attractive women among the Saviors pay tribute to him as his wives, even if they're actually married to other men in the group. Perhaps Rosita's fate is tied into this particular character trait? It's impossible to say at the moment, but I could believe that more than I could see Negan choosing to bludgeon her to death. But at the end of the day, her death's just not nearly as interesting (in this situation) as the showrunners have talked it up to be.

Chance of Survival: 50%

Vegas Odds: 3/1

Eugene

Oh, Eugene. The perennial screw-up. His smarts and ability to manipulate others has allowed him to survive this far into the post-apocalypse, but that might all be coming to an end. Eugene tried to escape the Saviors a couple of times and was easily caught; there's no way Negan sees him as a threat or a man worthy of making an example of unless he opens his mouth and says something stupid (which is a distinct possibility, but not as much as someone else on this list).

Eugene had perhaps one of the best character reveals of the series. Since then, however, he's struggled to prove his usefulness. He has a nifty plan to make new bullets, a plan which he's detailed in a letter to Rick. I'm sure Negan would love to get his hands on that information but I don't think Eugene would use it as a bargaining chip at this point. That would not sit well with the Alexandrians. However, this may be a prime example for Eugene to find his spine ... and pay the price for it.

Chance of Survival: 25%

Vegas Odds: 4/1

Glenn

Glenn is your obvious choice for Negan's victim. By all rights Glenn should have been dead last season, but the writers pulled some BS sleight of hand and saved him from a grisly death yet again. Was that all to better prepare audiences for this very moment?

It really makes the most sense: We've been with Glenn since nearly the very beginning, so he acts as a surrogate for Rick in that regard; Steven Yeun has played him to fantastic effect over the years and this would be a fitting send-off for him; his relationship with Maggie is the strongest romantic element of the show, so his death equates to a visceral gut-punch, especially when considering his status as father-to-be; and Glenn is a moral center of the group, having been the only one who hadn't killed a living person (up until relatively recently). The only way Glenn's getting out of this alive is if the showrunners decide that his death would be too predictable and thus go for something a little more shocking. Slim chance, but it's there.

Chance of Survival: 5%

Vegas Odds: 2/1

Abraham

He may not be Vegas' favorite to bite the big one, but he certainly is mine. While it would be a shame to see Michael Cudlitz depart the show in such a brutal fashion, it's actually a rather fitting end to his character. We've seen Abraham's own brutality unleashed upon the undead and living enemies alike in seasons past. We've also seen about as complete an arc for the character that we can, so it might be time to say goodbye no matter how painful it might be.

And if The Walking Dead wants to shy away from completely parroting the events of Robert Kirkman's comic book--which they have done with Abraham's character and could do again if they choose to end him here instead of another character--this would be a good way to do it. Abraham has completed his mission to escort Eugene to (relative) safety (and they've patched things up), has had a couple of romantic relationships, and, even moreso than Rick, looks to be completely defiant in the face of Negan. That last bit seems like something Negan wouldn't stand for, so I expect him to remedy it right quick.

Chance of Survival: 3%

Vegas Odds: 3/1

Abraham is a strong choice for Negan's victim since his death will have an emotional resonance throughout the cast of characters and audiences at home, but won't deprive the show of an essential character. Win/win. Except for Abraham and Cudlitz, of course.

But that's just my opinion! Be sure to share your thoughts in the comments below!