Pre-release estimates fell drastically short last week, when Universal’s Minions: The Rise of Gru attracted suit-wearing TikTokers and outperformed projections by over 50%, with $125 million over the Independence Day holiday weekend. It’ll be interesting to see if we see a repeat this week when Disney’s Thor: Love and Thunder is unleashed in approximately 4,300 domestic theaters. The film is projected to earn between $140 million and $160 million domestically in its first weekend, and an additional $150 million internationally for a global opening in the $300 million range.
Directed by Taika Waititi, Love and Thunder is the fourth film in the Thor series, and the second to have been directed by the irreverent New Zealand filmmaker. Waititi’s Thor: Ragnarok was largely credited with having revitalized the franchise after two ho-hum installments. It significantly altered the tone of the series and delivered franchise-best box office and reviews. The reactions to Love and Thunder, so far, have been less positive.
This has likely affected the film’s pre-release sales, which are falling short of the numbers posted by the last Marvel Cinematic Universe film, Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness, by 40%. Doctor Strange 2 made nearly $50 million in advance bookings a week before release, a number that increased to $85 million on opening day. The film made $187 million in its opening weekend and will conclude its theatrical run with over $410 million domestically and over $950 million worldwide.
But that film essentially played like a direct sequel not to the first Doctor Strange film but to the nearly $2 billion-grossing Spider-Man: No Way Home, which featured Benedict Cumberbatch’s superhero in a pivotal supporting role. It promised further exploration of the multiverse and featured crowd-pleasing cameos by fan-favorite characters. Waititi has gone on the record to state that Love and Thunder will not be hopping across the multiverse, which could likely affect the interest of Marvel fans who prefer their superhero storytelling to be connected to a larger narrative.
But what Love and Thunder does have is Natalie Portman, who’s returning to the series after sitting out the third chapter, and Christian Bale, who’s making his MCU debut as the villainous Gorr the God Butcher. The God of Thunder, of course, is played by Chris Hemsworth. By comparison, Ragnarok made $122 million in its opening weekend in 2017 and tapped out with $315 million domestically and over $850 million worldwide. The first Thor film, directed by Kenneth Branagh, concluded its run with $181 million domestically and nearly $450 million worldwide. Thor: The Dark World, directed by Alan Taylor, made $206 million in North America and $644 million globally.
Thor: Love and Thunder will debut in 47 international markets through the next week. It opens Wednesday in Germany, South Korea, Australia, and Italy, and on Thursday in the U.K, Brazil, and Mexico. The film will compete with holdover hits Jurassic World Dominion and The Rise of Gru, both of which have proven that mediocre reviews won’t dent box office returns if fan interest is strong enough.
Thor: Love and Thunder arrives in theaters on July 8. Stay tuned to Collider for more updates.