There's a reason that Paramount's Chris Aronson was the first executive named in the Wall Street Journal's article about Hollywood blockbusters being delayed, and it's because Paramount has two of the five Untouchables. These are the movies that under no circumstance could I even possibly see debuting on a streaming service by virtue of the power players involved -- James Cameron's Avatar 2, Steven Spielberg's West Side Story as well as the Spielberg-protected Jurassic World: Dominion, and Tom Cruise's Top Gun: Maverick and Mission: Impossible 7.
Heck, I could imagine a pandemic-ravaged world in which The Batman and Fast & Furious 9 end up debuting on HBO Max and Peacock and No Time to Die is sold to a streamer for pennies on the dollar before I could imagine any of those five movies debuting anywhere that's not a movie theater -- each for different reasons, of course. In Disney's case, the Avatar sequels represent a huge financial gamble, though they also seem like a safe bet, and the first one out will be the real test. West Side Story, on the other hand, is less of a liability, but it is a strong awards play, and make no mistake, there is only one Steven Spielberg, and he's still The King of Hollywood. That's why his involvement as an executive producer on the Jurassic World movies ensures Dominion's debut on the big screen.
And then there's Tom Cruise, one of the last true gods of the silver screen... and still going strong at age 58, mind you. Though Paramount has sold off nearly its entire slate over the past year, throughout the pandemic, the studio has never wavered in its commitment to Cruise. This after Paramount severed ties with the actor back in 2006 at the behest of Sumner Redstone despite the studio's then 14-year relationship with Cruise and his company. Obviously, the two sides patched things up, and now Cruise's two franchise films are the crown jewels of the studio's slate. Invaluable, and irreplaceable on the release schedule. That's why the studio reportedly rebuffed strong offers from Netflix and Apple. Paramount is confident it has a winner in Top Gun: Maverick, and "remember boys, no points for second place."
As such, Cruise knows Paramount wouldn't dare follow HBO Max's poorly-communicated lead and release Top Gun: Maverick on its forthcoming streaming service Paramount+ (due March 4) on the very same day as it flies into theaters. It's unclear whether a rival streamer has already signed a deal for the film's first post-theatrical window, but I would expect the sequel to debut on Paramount+ after its theatrical run, which could wind up being fairly extended, if Tenet is any indication. Then again, maybe that film should've been HBO Max's "Christmas gift" to subscribers.
Like many tentpoles that have been delayed, Top Gun: Maverick was truly made to be seen on the big screen, and it's said to feature jaw-dropping aerial combat and other high-octane stunts that might even make Ethan Hunt jealous. As of now, the movie will hit theaters -- and only theaters -- on July 2, and Paramount's domestic distribution chief Aronson told the WSJ he doesn't expect that date to change.
Of course, that's not entirely up to him, but if theaters in major markets haven't reopened by then, or the public hasn't been vaccinated in mass and remains skittish about returning to theaters, I promise you that Top Gun: Maverick will be delayed once again rather than handed off to Paramount+ or sold to a rival streamer. Given the sequel's budget, the math simply doesn't add up, so it's never going to happen. And you can take that one to the bank, Iceman. Now watch the birdie, buzz the tower and talk to me, Goose!