The long-delayed Top Gun: Maverick is making its final descent into theaters, and is all but guaranteed to give star Tom Cruise the biggest box office debut of his career. Early tracking suggests that the film will open to at least $92 million in its four-day Memorial Day extended weekend, with some estimating an opening in the vicinity of $125 million.
If the upper-end of these estimates holds true — and it could, considering the film’s spectacular reviews — it would roughly double Cruise’s previous best opening. Steven Spielberg’s War of the Worlds remains the star’s biggest debut ($64.9 million in 2005), followed by 2018’s Mission: Impossible — Fallout ($61.2 million). But with great word-of-mouth and a particularly all-or-nothing promotional tour that took Cruise to San Diego, Cannes, London, and Tokyo, the film has everything going in its favor to perform to its potential.
Certainly, that’s what the exacting taskmaster Cruise would expect. While much has been said about Cruise being the last great movie star of our times, he’s never been able to open movies. Although his films have uncommonly strong multiples. Barring War of the Worlds and Fallout, for instance, none of his other films have been able to crack the $60 million mark in their opening weekends.
The first Top Gun catapulted him to stardom that he is yet to relinquish, nearly 40 years later. Directed by the late Tony Scott, the film made over $350 million worldwide in 1986. Maverick is directed by Joseph Kosinski, who first worked with Cruise on the 2013 science-fiction film Oblivion.
That movie underperformed. And all things said and done, Maverick will have to deliver the goods, considering its hefty $170 million budget, not to mention the additional costs that Paramount no doubt bore because of pandemic-related delays. The studio, by the way, has had a terrific year, with hits such as Scream, Jackass Forever, The Lost City, and Sonic the Hedgehog. The next two Mission: Impossible movies are already dated for release in 2023 and 2024.
Maverick will open for Thursday previews before taking off in over 4,700 theaters on Friday. It’ll debut alongside The Bob’s Burgers Movie, which is tracking for an opening between $10 million and $14 million. Internationally, Maverick will land in 62 markets this weekend, with South Korea on the horizon and China undated. It’s expected to snag a $200 million worldwide opening if things go well.
The film also stars Miles Teller, Jennifer Connelly, Jon Hamm, Ed Harris, Glen Powell, Lewis Pullman, Danny Ramirez, Monica Barbaro, and Manny Jacinto. You can watch the trailer here, and read the official synopsis down below:
Test pilot Captain Pete "Maverick" Mitchell (Cruise) has purposely dodged an advancement in rank after thirty years of service. One day Maverick is called to be put in charge of training a group of Top Gun graduates for a specialized mission under the orders of his fellow naval aviator friend and former rival, Tom "Iceman" Kazansky (Kilmer), who is the commander of the U.S. Pacific Fleet. Among them is Lieutenant Bradley "Rooster" Bradshaw (Teller), the son of Maverick's late best friend Nick "Goose" Bradshaw (Edwards).