Trying to predict the Oscars in the Year of Our Lord 2020 is like attempting the technical challenge on Great British Bake Off. You might know what it’s supposed to look like, but under these conditions with these instructions? All bets are off. So yes, I begin this installment of Collider’s Oscar Beat – the first about the 2021 Oscar race – with the caveat that this is an insane year with insane outliers and there truly is no precedent for making predictions under these kind of conditions, but that’s part of what makes it fun.

And while we didn’t get a traditional fall film festival season, we did see a pretty serious Oscar contender arrive this October thanks to Netflix and writer/director Aaron Sorkin’s true story drama The Trial of the Chicago 7. With the film now available on Netflix, and with the streaming service undoubtedly prepared to mount a serious Oscar campaign, it felt prudent to take a look at the categories in which the film feels primed to compete.

But first, let’s run down what we know about the 2021 Oscars so far. Eligibility has been extended to February 28, 2021 from December 31, 2020, meaning we’ll see some Oscar movies getting released in January and February. And as a result of the extended eligibility window, the Oscars themselves won’t take place until April 25, 2021, the latest date in Oscars history.

Does this help or hurt Trial of the Chicago 7’s more traditional October release date? We truly don’t know! The number of contenders this year is also far fewer than in previous years, so it’ll be interesting to see how that plays out and what kinds of films we might see populate the major categories.

As for Chicago 7 specifically, it does seem like a pretty traditional Oscar player and I think it’s got the goods to land some key nominations. The film is a dramatization of the eruption of violence between protestors and police at the 1968 Democratic National Convention and the trial that resulted from the event, which itself was a shocking display of bias and prejudice from a judge who had nothing but contempt for the counter-culture and the anti-Vietnam War sentiment of the men on trial. It’s a movie about a moment in history that speaks to the world we live in today, as it’s truly at heart a film about protest in its many forms, and the change that it can affect.

Mark Rylance seems like the safest bet to land an Oscar nomination, likely in the Best Supporting Actor category as William Kunstler, the lead lawyer for the defense. He is unsurprisingly pretty terrific in the film, but the quiet intensity he brings to the role is especially effective as Kunstler becomes more and more frustrated by the judge’s nonsense. Speaking of which, I also wouldn’t be surprised if Frank Langella scored a Supporting Actor nomination for his complicated performance as the infuriating Judge Julius Hoffman. It’s one of those performances that some may take for granted, but what Langella is doing here is tremendously difficult – playing an antagonist who you believe fully believes himself to be a hero and bastion of justice. In the most upsetting way.

Eddie Redmayne is solid as the soft-spoken Tom Hayden, and Sacha Baron Cohen is funny yet passionate as Abbie Hoffman. I imagine Redmayne will be submitted as Best Actor, and he could very well score a nomination – although it really depends on how crowded the field is, since Chicago 7 is truly an ensemble. Cohen gets a couple of really great scenes, so he too could land a nomination, probably for Supporting Actor, but again it depends on how crowded the field is.

But another acting possibility I think that’s more likely is Yahya Abdul-Mateen II, who plays Bobby Seale with a dignity and perseverance that breaks your heart. Abdul-Mateen II gets one of the hardest roles in the film, and he also has limited screen time, but he really makes the most of it and you can imagine there’s an entire movie to be made about what Seale went through here.

Below the line, Phedon Papamichael could score another Best Cinematography nod after landing one last year for Ford v. Ferrari, as he’s able to make the film’s primary setting – a courtroom – feel dynamic, shifting with the moods of the proceedings. The way the riots are captured, too, is striking as Papamichael blends real archival footage with the film’s footage seamlessly. Shane Valentino’s production design is handsome, especially on the film’s limited budget, and the costume design by Susan Lyall is also noteworthy, and editor Alan Baumgarten does a nice job of piecing the fractured narrative together in a compelling way. Daniel Pemberton’s original score is solid, but I actually think his score for Enola Holmes is his best work of 2020.

It feels like a safe bet to name Sorkin a contender in the Best Original Screenplay category, although I felt similarly about his work on Steve Jobs back in 2015 and that underrated masterpiece was passed over almost entirely. And could he crack the Best Director category? Maybe, but with contenders like Spike Lee, David Fincher, Chloe Zhao, and Regina King already in the mix it’s shaping up to be a competitive category even despite 2020’s reduction in the quantity of contenders.

A Best Picture nomination, however, does feel like it’s probably in the cards. Chicago 7 is the kind of film that more traditional voters in the Academy will likely spark to (the ones who sprung for Ford v Ferrari, The Post, and Darkest Hour), but I also feel like it’s got a pretty broad appeal. It’s inspiring but not blindly optimistic; funny but not flippant; and most of all it finds Sorkin seriously questioning the integrity of America’s institutions. Its themes are potent to the world we’re living in right now, and that relevance makes this more than a “history lesson”-type Oscar movie.

But I say again, we truly have absolutely no idea what the 2021 Oscars are going to look like. Will they truly be wild, with voters taking this opportunity to acknowledge non-traditional films and performances like Palm Springs or Elisabeth Moss in The Invisible Man? Will burgeoning filmmakers have a better shot at Oscar glory? It’s incredibly unclear, but I’m honestly kind of thrilled to see how it all plays out.

So these are my Trial of the Chicago 7 Oscar predictions as of right now, knowing full-well a lot can change between now and the end of February.

Most Likely Nominations

Best Picture

Best Supporting Actor – Yahya Abdul Mateen II

Best Supporting Actor – Mark Rylance

Best Original Screenplay

Best Cinematography

Best Film Editing

For more on Trial of the Chicago 7, read Matt’s review.

Adam Chitwood is the Managing Editor for Collider. You can follow him on Twitter @adamchitwood.